certainly not familiar with the reasoning of psychologists or of Physiocrats. In its first stages statistics, to be sure, meant no more than a collection of facts relating to politics. Data were compiled to reveal the military or economic powers of a state, comparative studies taking the name of Cosmography. The growth of nations and the mercantilistic policy of statesmen lent interest to such investigations. Resources were catalogued and brought to the reader's attention so as to appeal to his patriotism. Physical and commercial geography came in for their share of consideration, though not infrequently accuracy was sacrificed for the sake of impressiveness. In England Harrison's "Description of England," 1577, is a fair type of what statistics include at that time, and what in the compiler's opinion the people wanted. On the continent the "Respublica Elzevirana" of Leyden by Holland publishers (1626-) were widely known and used, some sixty states being comprised in the collection. The German Kameralists wrote bulky tomes on "Staatsbeschreibung," that of Conring, 1660, being especially well received. Thomasius, the chief exponent of German Rationalism in those days, not only was the first to dare use his mother tongue in lectures at the University of Leipzig, but also introduced in 1694 Statistics as one of his regular courses. Still later Achinwall (1749) published his "Outlines of the New Political Science," in which the description of political facts was subordinated to an historical treatment; while in England Salmon's "Present State of All Nations" had long circulated as a work of distinct merit. Demographic records, too, became plentiful about this time. The oldest official data, namely church registers of birth, death, and marriage, were preserved with a grow ing appreciation of their value for future generations, and clerks put in charge soon after the Reformation. Vital statistics in general were first compiled in Spain at the end of that century, though no systematic inquiries appear to have been made until much later. It was the age of the Enlightenment that set a good example here as in other things, and gave to statistics at once a standing among other fields of investigation. In Prussia the first census dates from 1719. Nearly a hundred years later the bureau was reorganized and put on a permanent basis-possibly another one of those efforts made at that time to infuse life into a nearly defunct state, whose very existence depended on the goodwill of Napoleon. In France the beginnings were equally humble and devoid of immediate results, but by 1820 this branch of the public service had been definitely recognized as important for many governmental needs. Apart from official undertakings, however, those of a private origin must be considered, and these take us back far into the seventeenth century. England once more seems to have led the way. It was there that Graunt, 1662, published his "Natural and Political Observations Upon Bills of Mortality." It was there that Halley, the discoverer of the comet named for him, gave out his figures on death-rates and population in 1693. King's and Petty's tables gained recognition at once and served as an incentive for similar studies by German economists. In 1698 we hear of a life-insurance company founded for the purposes of protecting individuals against risks through death. Population was watched increasingly as an index of prosperity and national power, the pessimistic attitude of Malthusian days being as yet unknown; for there was enough to eat, and manufacture still played a minor rôle in national life. Indeed, on theological L grounds the movements of population were regarded as a sign of divine intentions, as for instance in the "Betrachtungen über die Göttliche Ordnung in den Veränderungen des Menschlichen Geschlechts" (1767) by J. P. Suessmilch. In other words, statistics had not so far been treated as an exact science, following principles of logic and mathematics, but rather as a field for information that might prove suggestive to monarchs and tax collectors. The state almanacs appearing from 1700 on answer this purpose, as well as periodicals and textbooks for collegiate use, which by the middle of the century had reached quite a finished form. Still, it may be argued that precision was aimed at more and more, and that mathematicians by their treatises on probability did give a fillip to statistical interests. For while mathematics was not indispensable to a thorough cultivation of the field, it could not fail to economize labors or to corroborate inferences from particulars near at hand. Assuming a given number of variables, laws of recurrence could be stated quantitatively, per block of events, per class, or per unit of time. And it deserves noting that mainly on this account statistical investigations strengthened a belief in social laws which govern human events, just as physical events were already known to obey laws. Thus the calculus of Newton and Leibniz bore indirectly upon the rise of social science. Thus Pascal's and Fermat's books on probability in games of chance, published in 1660, stimulated statistical inquiry. Thus Bernouilli's "Ars Conjectandi" of 1713, and the later publications of Euler, were in keeping with tendencies of the time. Historians, on their part, kept abreast of events by widening their field, by subordinating chronology to synthetic accounts of the past, by searching for a unifying principle back of human records. The Renaissance furnished the raw materials for the new science; the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries turned out finished products that, in some cases, were worthy to be ranked with the best of our own age. However, it was the rationalistic temper of these histories rather than their contents that must impress us; and it was the idea of a philosophy of history that most of all prompted men to study the socioeconomic aspects of human evolution. Pioneers like Bossuet, Vico,45 and Montesquieu for this reason exerted an influence upon the founders of economics. Adam Smith had good precedents when he devoted a large portion of his "Wealth of Nations" to a resumé of former economic systems! To sum up long periods of time under a single viewpoint was no longer a novelty in his day. In France Turgot had published his "Successive Advances of Human Nature," 1750; Voltaire several comprehensive histories including his "Essay on Morals and Customs," 1756; and Condillac his "Universal History" in 1775. Among English works deserve notice Ferguson's "Essay on the His- < tory of Civil Society," 1767, and preëminently, of course, Gibbon's "Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire," the first volume of which appeared in 1776. Germany also could point to meritorious works, for instance to Iselin's "Philosophical Speculations on a History of Mankind," 1764; to Schlozer's "General Scandinavian History," 1772, which at the time enjoyed great popularity; to Wegelin's "Memoirs on a Philosophy of History," 1776, and to the essays of Möser, Lessing, and Herder who combined literary excellence with loftiness of thought. Genealogy of Social Science.-Without going further See his Principes de la Philosophie de l'Histoire, translated from the Italian by Michelet, J., 1835. Vico frankly admits his indebtedness to Hugo Grotius, the Dutch jurist. |