in the rule of division. If we take the aggregate of the means of subsistence as a dividend, the number of mankind as divisor; then the average share of each is the quotient. Where two of these quantities are given, the third may be found. Only when the dividend has largely increased can the divisor and quotient increase at the same time (prosperous increase of population). If, however, the quotient remains unchanged, the increase of the divisor can take place only at the expense of the quotient (proletarian increase of population).2 Hence it is to be expected that the quantity of the means of subsistence being given and also the requirement of each individual, the number of births and the number of deaths should condition each other. Where, for instance, the number of church livings has not been increased, only as many candidates can marry as clergymen who held such livings have died. The greater the average age of the latter is, the later do the former marry, in the average, and vice versa. And so, in the case of whole nations, when their economic consumption and production remain unaltered. A basin entirely filled with

Compare Isaias, 9: 3. According to Courcelle-Seneuil, Traité théorique et pratique d'Economie politique, I, 1858, the chiffre nécessaire de la popzilation égal à la somme des revenus de la sociétié diminuée de la somme des inégalités R-J de consommation et diviseé par le minimum de consommation: P= M

Thus Süssmilch, Göttliche Ordnung in den Veränderungen des menschlichen Geschlechts, 1st ed., 1742, 4th ed., 1775, I, 126 ff., assumes that one marriage a year takes place, on from every 107 to every 113 persons living. On the other hand, 22 Dutch towns gave an average of 1 in every 64. This abnormal proportion is very correctly ascribed by Malthus, Principles of Population, II, ch. 4, to the great mortality of those towns: viz., a death for every 22 or 23 persons living, while the average is 1:36. The Swiss, Müret, (in the Mémoires de la Société économique de Berne, 1766, I, 15 ff.), could not help wondering that the villages with the largest average duration of life should be those in which there were fewest births. “So much life-power and yet so few procreative resources!" Here too, Malthus, II, ch. 5, solved the enig ma. The question was concerned with Alpine villages with an almost stationary cow-herd business: no one married until one cow-herd cottage had become free; and precisely because the tenants lived so long, the new comers obtained their places so late. Compare d' Ivernois, Enquête sur les Causes patentes et occulte de la faible Proportion de Naissances à Mon

water can be made to contain more only in case it is either increased itself, or a means is found to compress its contents. Otherwise as much must flow out on the one side as is poured in on the other.

And so, everything else remaining stationary, the fruitfulness of marriages must, at least in the long run, be in the inverse ratio of their frequency. (See § 247.) 45

treux: yearly 1:46, of the persons living, while the average in all Switzerland was 1:28.

In France according to Quételet, Sur l'Homme, 1835, I, 83 ff., there was:

=

The two departments of Orne and Finisterre present a very glaring contrast: in the former, one birth per annum on every 44.8 (1851=51.6), a marriage on every 147.5, a death on every 52.4 (1851 = 54.1) living persons; in the latter, on the contrary, on every 26 (1851=29.8), 113.9 and 30.4 (1851 = 34-2). In Namur, the proportions were 30.1, 141, 51.8; in Zeeland, 21.9,* 113.2, 28.5. (Quételet, I, 142.) The Mexican province, Guanaxuato, presents the most frightful extreme: one birth per annum on every 16.08 of the population living, and one death in every 19.7. (Quételet, I, 110.) Compare even Steuart, Principles, I, ch. 13. 1830, II, 514:

Sadler, Law of Population,

SECTION CCXL.

INFLUENCE OF AN INCREASE OF THE MEANS OF
SUBSISTENCE.

The sexual instinct and the love for children are incentives of such universality and power, that an increase of the means of subsistence is uniformily followed by an increase in the numbers of mankind. Partout, où deux personnes peuvent vivre commodément, il se fait un mariage. (Montesquieu.). Thus after a good harvest, the number of marriages and births is wont to considerably increase; and conversely to diminish after bad harvests.123 In the former case, it is rather hope than

Compare Horn, Bevölkerungswissenschaftliche Studien, I, 162 ff., 191, 252 ff. In most countries, there is a much larger number of children to a marriage in the rural districts than in the cities; but at the same time, marriages are much less frequent there. In Saxony, however, where the cities show a greater marital productiveness, the rural districts present a large number of marriages. Of the 10 countries compared by Wappäus, II, 481 ff., only Prussia and Schleswig are exceptions to the rule.

1 That rich food directly increased prolificacy is proved from the fact that, for instance, our domestic animals are much more prolific than wild ones of the same species. Compare Villermé, in the Journ. des Economistes VI, 400 ff. The months richest in conceptions fall universally in the spring, and again in the pleasant season immediately following the harvest. On the other hand, during the seasons of fast in the Catholic church the number of cases of conception is below the average. (Jour. des Econ., 1857, SoS). Thus the annual mean number of marriages amounted to:

Between 1841
and 1850.

In 1847 alone.

In Saxony, In Holland, In Belgium, In France,

15, 505 22,352 28,968 280, 330

14,220 19, 280 24. 145 249,797

Horn, loc. cit. I, 167. In the governmental district (Regierungsbezirke) of Düsseldorf, there was in the years of scarcity, 1817 and 1818, one marriage for every 134 and 137 souls; on the other hand, in 1834 nd 1835, in every 103 and 105. (Viebahn, I, 120 seq.) In England, the variations in the yearly

actual possession which constitutes the incentive to the founding of new families. Hence the greatest increase is not found in connection with the absolutely lowest price of corn, but price of corn are reflected in the variations in the number of yearly marriages. Thus, in 1800, 114 shillings per quarter; 1801, 122 shillings; 1802 (Peace of Amiens), 70 shillings; 1803, 58 shillings. The number of marriages in the four years respectively was 69,851, 67,288, 90,396, 94,379. (Porter, Progress of the Nation, III, ch. 14, 453.)

Similarly in Germany, in 1851, the conclusion of peace increased the number of marriages, and the scarcity of 1817 diminished it. In Prussia, in 1816, there was one marriage for every 88.1 of the population; in 1828, for every 121.4; in 1834 (origin of the great Zollverein), for every 104; in 1855, for every 136.4; in 1858 (hope of a new era), in every 105.9. (v. Viebahn. Statistik des Zollvereins II, 206.)

The decreased number of births in consequence of a bad harvest, and vice versa, appears of course only during the following calendar year. Thus, in 1847, as compared with the average of the years 1844 and 1845, there were fewer children born in England by 4 per 1,000, in Saxony by 7 per 1,000, in Lombardy by 59, in France by 63, in Prussia by 82, in Belgium by 122, in Holland by 159 per 1,000. (Horn, I, 239 ff.) In Germany, the conscriptionyears corresponding to the scarcity time, 1816-17, gave a minus of 25 per cent. in many places below the average. (Bernouilli, Populationistik, 219.) In the case of marriage, the relative increase or decrease is still more characteristic, so far as our purpose is concerned, than the absolute increase or decrease. Thus in Belgium, for instance, against 1,000 marriages dissolved by death, there were, in 1846, only 971 new ones contracted, and in 1847 only 747; while in 1850 there were 1,500. The falling off in Flanders alone was still greater. Thus, in 1847, there were only 447 marriages contracted for 1,000 dissolved. (Horn, I, 170 ff.) However, Berg, using Sweden as an illustration, rightly calls attention to the fact, that the variations in the number of marriages and births is determined in part by the number of adults, that is, of the number of births 20 and more years before. Compare Engel's Statist. Zeitschr., 1869, 7.

with those prices which present the most striking contrast to those of a previous bad year.

The introduction of the potato has promoted the rapid increase of population in most countries. Thus, the population of Ireland in 1695, was only 1,034,000; in 1654, when the cultivation of the potato became somewhat more common it was 2,372,000; in 1805, 5,395,000; in 1823, 6,801,827; in 1841, 8,175,000. In 1851, after the fearful spread of the potato-rot it fell again to 6,515,000.5 In general, every new or increasing branch of industry, as soon as it yields a real net product is wont to invite an increase of population. Machines, however, have not this effect only when they operate to produce rather a more unequal division of the national income than an absolute increase of that income."

3 Sometimes, a sudden increase in the frequency of marriages may have very accidental and transitory causes. Thus, for instance, in France in 1813, when the unmarried were so largely conscripted, the number of marriages rose to 387,000, whereas the average of the five previous years was 229,000. (Bernouilli, Populationistik, 103.)

Thus, for instance, in nearly all countries affected by the movement of 1848, there were, during the last months of that year, an unusually large number of conceptions. (Horn., I, 241 seq.) According to Dieterici, Abh. der Berliner Akademie, 1855, 321 ff., there was one birth a year for the number of persons living.

The great majority of men at that time believed all they liked to believe.

6

Marshall, Digest of all Accounts, I, 15. Porter, I, ch. I, 9.

• Wallace, in this respect, places industry far behind agriculture. (On the Numbers of mankind in ancient and modern Times.) The county of Lancashire had, in 1760, that is shortly before the introduction of the great machine industry, 297,000 inhabitants; in 1801, 672,000; in 1831, 1,336,000; in 1861, 2,490,000. Saxony has, in almost every place, a relatively large number of births in proportion as in any locality, commerce and industry prepond