at a premium, the premium must always amount to a full equivalent for the cost of transmitting money; since, as there is really a balance to pay, and as the full cost must therefore be incurred by some of those who have remittances to make, their competition will compel all to submit to an equivalent sacrifice. And such would certainly be the case, if it were always necessary that whatever is destined to be paid should be paid immediately. The expectation of great and immediate foreign payments sometimes produces a most startling effect on the exchanges.* But a small excess of imports above exports, or any other small amount of debt to be paid to foreign countries, does not usually affect the exchanges to the full extent of the cost and risk of transporting bullion. The length of credit allowed, generally permits, on the part of some of the debtors, a postponement of payment, and in the mean time the balance may turn the other way, and restore the equality of debts and credits without any actual transmission of the metals. And this is the more likely to happen, as there is a self-adjusting power in the variations of the exchange itself. Bills are at a premium because a greater money value has been imported than exported. But the premium is itself an extra profit to those who export. Be On the news of Bonaparte's landing from Elba, the price of bills advanced in one day as much as ten per cent. Of course this premium was not a mere equivalent for cost of carriage, since the freight of such an article as gold, even with the addition of war insurance, could never have amounted to so much. This great price was an equivalent not for the difficulty of sending gold, but for the anticipated difficulty of procuring it to send; the expectation being that there would be such immense remittances to the continent in subsidies and for the support of armies, as would press hard on the stock of bullion in the country, (which was then entirely denuded of specie,) and this, too, in a shorter time than would allow of its being replenished. Accordingly, the price of bullion rose likewise, with the same suddenness. It is hardly necessary to say that this took place during the bank restriction. In a convertible state of the currency, no such thing could have occurred until the bank stopped payment. the par of exchange with France. Wh When bills on foreign countries diby means 1. Not so, erts, which for a permalibrium an only be le that prices puts, and yet to the from the up to the the extra s of com 159 t depend try sep England but it does not will be against e at a premium; nd from Holland or to France with bills ly called arbitration of ditional expense, partly terest, in settling debts in the extent of that small difone country may vary apart t in the main, the exchanges vary together, according as the to receive or to pay on the general sactions. CHAPTER XXI. DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRECIOUS METALS THROUGH 1. HAVING now examined the mechanism by which commercial transactions between nations are actually nducted, we have next to inquire whether this mode of Conducting them makes any difference in the conclusions respecting international values, which we previously arrived at on the hypothesis of barter. The nearest analogy would lead us to presume the negative. We did not find that the intervention of money and ww. side the price they obtain for their goods, they draw for the amount, and gain the premium. It is, on the other hand, a diminution of profit to those who import. Beside the price of the goods, they have to pay a premium for remittance. So that what is called an unfavorable exchange is an encouragement to export, and a discouragement to import. And if the balance due is of small amount, and is the consequence of some merely casual disturbance in the ordinary course of trade, it is soon liquidated in commodities, and the account adjusted by means of bills, without the transmission of any bullion. Not so, however, when the excess of imports above exports, which has made the exchange unfavorable, arises from a permanent cause. In that case, what disturbed the equilibrium must have been the state of prices, and it can only be restored by acting on prices. It is impossible that prices should be such as to invite to an excess of imports, and yet that the exports should be kept permanently up to the imports by the extra profit on exportation derived from the premium on bills; for if the exports were kept up to the imports, bills would not be at a premium, and the extra profit would not exist. It is through the prices of commodities that the correction must be administered. Disturbances, therefore, of the equilibrium of imports and exports, and consequent disturbances of the exchange, may be considered as of two classes; the one casual or accidental, which, if not on too large a scale, correct themselves through the premium on bills, without any transmission of the precious metals; the other arising from the general state of prices, which cannot be corrected without the subtraction of actual money from the circulation of one of the countries, or an annihilation of credit equivalent to it, since the mere transmission of bullion, (as distinguished from money,) not having any effect on prices, is of no avail to abate the cause from which the disturbance proceeded. It remains to observe, that the exchanges do not depend on the balance of debts and credits with each country separately, but with all countries taken together. England may owe a balance of payments to France; but it does not follow that the exchange with France will be against England, and that bills on France will be at a premium; because a balance may be due to England from Holland or Hamburg, and she may pay her debt to France with bills on those places; which is technically called arbitration of exchange. There is some little additional expense, partly commission and partly loss of interest, in settling debts in this circuitous manner, and to the extent of that small difference the exchange with one country may vary apart from that with others; but in the main, the exchanges with all foreign countries vary together, according as the country has a balance to receive or to pay on the general result of its foreign transactions. CHAPTER XXI. OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRECIOUS THE COMMERCIAL WORLD. METALS THROUGH 1. HAVING now examined the mechanism by which the commercial transactions between nations are actually conducted, we have next to inquire whether this mode of conducting them makes any difference in the conclusions respecting international values, which we previously arrived at on the hypothesis of barter. The nearest analogy would lead us to presume the negative. We did not find that the intervention of money and |