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fecundity of the two populations. Thus in 1870 the number of persons in the United States aged 20-60 years amounted to 43.9 per cent. of the total population; while in France the corresponding number was 53.7 per cent.

When more accuracy is required, we must (2) calculate the proportion the births registered bear to the women living at child-bearing years; i.e., roughly between about 16 and 45 years. These are shown by the census returns for each urban and rural sanitary district; and as the age and sex composition, except in very abnormal cases, does not vary materially in an intercensal period, the same proportion of women aged 16-45 to the total population holds good throughout the intervening period between any two census enumerations. A birth-rate obtained in this way is doubtless more accurate in comparing one country with another, and even different towns or districts of the same country; but the crude birth-rate is sufficiently reliable for ordinary purposes.

(3) It has been proposed to estimate the fecundity of a population by determining the proportion of births to each marriage. This method, however, makes no allowance for illegitimate births.

To ascertain the number of births to each marriage, the annual births should be divided by the annual marriages of some previous year. It is assumed that the interval between the average age at marriage and at the birth of children is six years; and on this assumption in the table on page 51 the legitimate births in 1876 are divided by the marriages registered six years earlier.

Defects in Registration of Births.-Prior to the operation of the Civil Registration Act of 1837, there were no trustworthy birth statistics. In the earlier years of the operation of the Act the birth registration was undoubtedly deficient, Dr. Farr estimating the deficiency during the 39 years ending with 1876 at 5 per cent. The registration of births was first made compulsory by the Births and Deaths Registration Act of 1874; and it is probable that at the present time the failure of registration is very small, and chiefly confined to illegitimate births. There

are two grave defects in the Birth Registers of the United Kingdom. The ages of the mothers at the birth of each of their children are not stated, nor is the order of their birth recorded, so that the number of children borne by women at different ages, and the total number in the course of their lives, cannot be ascertained in this country.

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It will be seen from the above table that the birth-rate in this country is steadily decreasing, the comparatively low figures in the earlier years of the preceding table being at least in part ascribable to imperfect registration.

The birth-rate varies considerably under different circumstances. Some of these will be now considered. The variation in different counties is shown by the table on pages 58 and 59 from the Registrar-General's 49th Annual Report.

The lowest rates occur in the agricultural, and the highest in mining and industrial districts. Thus, in the table referred to, we find the birth-rate in Staffordshire 361, in Durham 36-2,

in Lancashire 33-7, as compared with 29.8 in Dorsetshire, 29.5 in Devonshire, and 27-3 in Herefordshire.

The higher birth-rate in urban populations, which are to a great extent included in mining and industrial districts, is owing in part to the higher marriage-rate, and in part to the earlier marriage of women, and the greater mortality among infants, which, by shortening the period of suckling, diminishes the intervals of child-bearing. But the chief reason is doubtless the fact that in urban populations there is a greater proportion of women at child-bearing ages.

Social Position has a considerable influence on the birth-rate, though there are very few data to determine this point. The fallacy involved in the fact that people's social position tends to improve as their ages advance should be remembered. We have already seen (page 48) that persons of the higher classes marry at a later age than others. There are serious fallacies involved in comparing the crude birth-rate of two populations. Thus Mr. Chadwick compared the metropolitan births, which at the time of his remarks were 1 in 37 of the population, with those of Herefordshire, which were 1 in 44; but Mr. Neison showed that this difference was largely explained by the fact that while the population aged 20 to 40 was 36.33 per cent. of the total population in London, it was only 28-39 per cent in Herefordshire.

The influence of National Prosperity on the birth-rate is in the same direction as its influence on the marriage-rate (page 45). A high birth-rate is due to prosperity, unless artificial and voluntary checks to population are introduced. The numbers of the population are increased by an abundance of the necessaries of life, and reduced by converse influences, as famine, epidemics, and other calamities. The only exception to the rule that national prosperity is accompanied by a high birthrate occurs when, from any cause, early and improvident marriages or illegitimate births increase to a large extent.

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