of Geographic Environment, is one of the most suggestive books ever published in this connection. But, after having mastered all the best authorities, it still appeared to the present writer that a great deal in connection with the larger aspects of the human movement 1 either remained unexplained or was erroneously presented. Failing light or leading in any authoritative quarter, he had perforce to seek out explanations for himself. For years he tried to work out "masterclues" in all the directions where these still seemed desirable, and in the long run, after following up many false scents, he hit upon what seemed to be the guiding ideas of which he was in search. Not content with testing their validity in every way known to him, the author submitted his views to several scholars of repute. As they are of opinion that the ideas outlined stand for a substantially novel co-ordination in historical dynamics, it has been thought well to submit the views to public criticism. It is the author's hope that the work (which has been written in the most condensed form possible) may throw some fresh light on the grander aspects of history, which, despite all that has been written up to this point, quite apparently still stand in need of illumination. 1 See "Bibliographical note " for an indication of the nature of these ideas, also the "Recapitulation," where italics indicate the special view of the writer. NOTE A "CHRONOLOGical Table” will be found at the end of the volume. It has been drawn up to supplement the argument submitted in the following pages. Any reader who has not the historical sequence of events clearly in his mind may find it advantageous to refer to the Table, which is necessarily condensed, since a full epitome would have made a small volume in itself. MASTER-CLUES IN WORLD-HISTORY CHAPTER I ADJUSTING THE ISSUES It is calculated that, in the beginning of the twentieth century, the Earth supports a human population of about a billion and a half (1,500,000,000). When one takes account of the crowded conditions of great capitals like London, New York, Paris, and Berlin, and thinks how fractional these cities are compared with the provincial populations of the world, thinks how some " old " lands are so densely populated as to set up great streams of emigration to "new" countries, one is apt to be impressed by the multitudinousness of humanity working out endless agitations like the illimitable waves of the sea. But, from another point of view, the human mass spread over the whole planet may sink into insignificant proportions. It is estimated that, if the billion and a half human beings were all crowded together so as to allow only standing room for A each, they could yet be accommodated in an area equal to the Isle of Wight. If the population of the Earth should increase three or four fold (which some estimate to be about its full capacity), an English county of about the average size could still accommodate the enormous total. We thus see how the search for a living and for general elbow-room has resulted in the diffusion of the human race as wide as the planet itself. It is only in very recent times that the census has been resorted to in civilised countries, and any kind of systematic attempt made to sum up the grand human total. In Asia the census results are instructive mainly as regards India, where the population has notably, even alarmingly, increased under the "pax Britannica"; but there seems no doubt that the population in Japan, China, and other Asiatic countries has been increasing up to the level of about the lowest standard of living on the planet. The peace imposed by Russia in her Asiatic empire seems to be having the same results of multiplication of the human species as in India. In Europe, Russia herself has added most notably to her population, and the process shows no such sign of slackening as has happened most markedly in France, where, but for immigration, there would probably be an actual annual decline of the population. In Germany, Britain, and other countries the tendency is to much slower increase of the |