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CHAPTER II.

OF THE LAW OF POPULATION: ANTICIPATORY COMPUTATIONS OF NATURE IN REFERENCE THERETO.

(1) IT is a striking fact that man, notwithstanding the prevailing dread of his undue increase, is one of the most sterile beings in creation. The means by which, on the one hand, his race is perpetuated, and, on the other, protected from the calamitous consequences of a really redundant increase, involving a series of preliminary calculations of the most exact and certain nature, are amongst the first considerations which this most important subject suggests to the human mind.

(2) It is asserted, but it has been already shewn how inaccurately, that in one favoured portion of the world, mankind annually increase in number after the rate of three individuals upon every hundred of the existing population. Supposing, however, this ratio of increase actually to exist any where, the difference between the number of the births causing it, and of those in a stationary, or even retrogressive population, is, when calculated on each marriage, so minute, as to manifest at once the utter hopelessness and glaring absurdity of attempting to interfere, by laws or otherwise, with the course of Nature. When the strength of the principle sought to be regulated or repressed, which is all but irresistible, is considered; it must be instantly plain to any one, that so to interfere with it as to produce any effect whatever, means must be resorted to which must operate upon the mass;

and, in so doing, they would effectuate the destruction of the species. For instance, how would those who have the folly to suppose that population in this country advances too fast by one per cent., so operate, had they even their wish, as to diminish the number of marriages by one in one hundred, or otherwise contract the fecundity of the existing number by about one twenty-fifth part of a birth each, or calculate, upon their own erroneous suppositions, the term of that postponement of marriage on which they insist so much, so as to produce this exact effect? The very idea is, in each instance, absurd to the last degree. If the computations of the Author of Nature are, as some suppose, incorrect, the condition of humanity is hopeless it is out of the power of human beings to rectify them.

(3) But there is no call for human interference. Slight as is the increase of population under the most favourable circumstances, that increase is a matter of the strictest regulation. Causes apparently unconnected, varying exceedingly when individually considered, are nevertheless so governed and complicated as to produce results surprisingly accurate and infallibly certain. And, moreover, these physical causes identify themselves with moral ones, which, when duly considered, are found as essential to the happiness as to the preservation of the species. How, then, can

be doubted but that these physical principles, to which the moral laws of our being evince the most striking adaptations, and which are enforced by the natural duties of mankind, are as perfect in their operation as they are benevolent in their design? I proceed to demonstrate this cheering and important truth in the remaining part of this treatise. Previously, however, to entering upon the main branch of the sub

ject, I shall point out a series of facts by no means unconnected with it, some of which, it is believed, have been hitherto unnoticed; forming in the whole a system of preliminary calculations, as I venture to term them, on the part of Nature, in reference to its great design of reproduction, which will, it is hoped, fully prepare the mind of the reader for the reception of that great law of population about to be developed.

(4) And first, the reproduction of the human species, in common with all other animated beings, by means of the sexual system, which lies at the very foundation of all the succeeding arguments, is of itself, when rightly considered, a stupendous proof of that wisdom and benevolence which governs the entire principle of population; but I shall refrain from expressing the ideas that present themselves to my mind on this important point, and proceed to remark upon the interesting fact of the nearly equal division of these sexes.

(5) Marriage, or the permanent union of one man with one woman, is an institution not of religion merely, but of Nature; and essential to the preservation of the human race. Regarding mankind, the attention due to the mother during gestation, and after parturition; the protracted period of infancy, during which the offspring demands the attention of both parents, and derives a greater security of life from the circumstance of having more than one; the physical and mental tuition necessary in the earlier stages of existence;-these, and a variety of other important circumstances essential to the continuation of the species, comprehended in that emphatic word of our Saxon ancestors, "rearing," are secured by this institution; and this again is dictated by that individuality of affection which is a natural attribute of the

human race, as well as of such other of the animated tribes of nature amongst which it appears also necessary, and it continues as long as it remains so. Without this feeling, the sexual propensity, however powerful, would fail in accomplishing the purpose under consideration: "illicit connexions," as Montesquieu has observed, "contributing but little to the propagation of the species1;" he might have added, still less to its preservation. To the sexual propensity, therefore, is added another perfectly distinct from it, though, in a state of purity, always accompanying it, namely, affection, or love: the union of these feelings leads to that mutual appropriation called marriage, which is eagerly sought and vindictively protected, and exists in some form or other, more or less perfect, in every human community upon earth. Hence the race of man is preserved.

(6) Now it has been already shewn, in a preceding part of this work, that the state of marriage is, amongst the adults of all civilized communities, almost universal; and, nevertheless, the increase in none of them gives more than a very small annual accession of numbers. It follows, therefore, that, were any natural obstacles interposed against the almost universal prevalence of marriage, as now instituted, population must rapidly retrograde. Of all such obstacles, an inequality in the numbers of the sexes would be the most insurmountable; would introduce inconceivable confusion and distress, and uproot the whole social system. Against so fatal a catastrophe Nature has protected mankind by one of the most certain, yet inscrutable of her laws, which, in providing for the universality, apparently dictates the duty, of the marriage union.

1 Montesquieu, l'Esprit des Loix, 1. xxiii., c. 2, t. ii., p. 130.

(7) In proving, therefore, that the whole system of population is under the unceasing direction of the Deity, either through the operation of those secondary causes resulting from his eternal prescience, or from his perpetually superintending providence, it is natural that this near equality in the numbers of the sexes at birth should have the first consideration. The fact is undoubted; but when the elements forming the general results are considered, consisting, as they do, of individual and unconnected families, in which the sexes are presented in all the possible disproportions of which the numbers involved are susceptible, and sometimes in differences, literally speaking, infinite'; that these extreme contrarieties should at all times, and in every community, be so balanced as to form the computation now under notice, is one of the most astonishing of those standing miracles to which constant experience could alone familiarise our minds, and gain our belief.

(8) The proportion in question has exercised the calculating powers of some of the ablest mathematicians, from Dr. Arbuthnot down to La Place3. It is no part of my object to shew from them what I conceive few will dispute, that it is absurd to attribute to the doctrine of chances, as it is called, such a result. I will, therefore, content myself with merely giving to the reader a calculation of Professor 'Sgravesande, as inserted by Dr. Nieuwentit, who, in observing upon the proportion of the sexes born in London only, and during a period not exceeding eighty-two years, says, that "if we multiply a number of a hundred thou"sand times a hundred thousand millions, first with "a hundred thousand times a hundred millions, we

1 As when there are males and no 2 Philosophical Transactions, vol. v., females, or vice versa. p. 606. 8 La Place, Doctrine of Probabilities. Y

VOL. II.