it leave the actual number of marriages ust of necessity diminish their proportion the whole population. To disencumber conclusion of all collateral considerations,

that, in this latter community also, all the earliest possible age; still the relative marriages would be diminished, exactly f life enlarged, indicating an increasing cause, according to our theorists, which case no existence whatever.

preceding arguments will, however, in all De contradicted, and the calculations em confused by a variety of extraneous

it not being very likely that so essential he system, in behalf of which a series of have been assumed, should be surrent a defence founded upon suppositions extraordinary nature. But to establish, overtible grounds, the truth contended for his chapter, that the preventive check as ilated, directly contrary to what is asserted t, appears to operate more than it really pulation increasing in longevity, or from I shall, lastly, appeal from mere argument 1 the last census of the British Empire, the inhabitants, in its several grand divisions, nated in three of these the comparative s clearly ascertained, in two of them by locuments, in the other by universal assent. the term of life is found to be longer than in by upwards of one fifth, while, in Ireland, it

y

the shortest: the increase has not so varied ct the demonstration contemplated. Is, then, ribution of the population into its several s such as to sanction Mr. Malthus's notions on

probability of such an one being married, which probability, the certainty being unity, will always be less, whatever be the proportion. This expectation of marriage, also, like the former one, is nothing more than the average chance of every individual as calculated on the entire number of the marriages and births. And both these expectations, however varying from facts in individual cases, are, in regard to their averages, mathematically exact, if correctly computed. I may premise that the mean term of life invariably exceeds the marriageable age. Now if the sum which expresses the average individual expectation of marriage be divided by that which similarly expresses the expectation of life, the quotient will of course be the whole expectation of marriage, annually divided; or the utmost annual addition that each individual, one with another, can make to the marriages of the community; and the sum of these annual individual proportions will be precisely the whole amount of the annual weddings. Let us now assume that the term of life is lengthened, the number of marriages remaining the same; and few will contend that their proportions are necessarily relative; Mr. Malthus, indeed, argues that they are so, inversely; it being the prominent feature of his theory, that deaths invariably make room for weddings. In this case, then, the divisor, the expectation of life, being increased, and the dividend, the expectation of marriage, being unaltered, the quotient, which expresses the annual proportion of marriage individually calculated, must be lessened accordingly; and the sum of these individual proportions being that of the entire number of marriages, the latter must, consequently, suffer a corresponding annual diminution. Directly the contrary, therefore, to what Mr. Malthus asserts, is the plain fact; superior healthiness, or, in other words, comparative elongation

of life, though it leave the actual number of marriages untouched, must of necessity diminish their proportion relatively to the whole population. To disencumber the preceding conclusion of all collateral considerations, again suppose that, in this latter community also, all marry, and at the earliest possible age; still the relative proportion of marriages would be diminished, exactly as the term of life enlarged, indicating an increasing operation of a cause, according to our theorists, which has in such a case no existence whatever.

(18) The preceding arguments will, however, in all probability, be contradicted, and the calculations relative to them confused by a variety of extraneous considerations; it not being very likely that so essential a branch of the system, in behalf of which a series of impossibilities have been assumed, should be surrendered without a defence founded upon suppositions of an equally extraordinary nature. But to establish, upon incontrovertible grounds, the truth contended for throughout this chapter,-that the preventive check as usually calculated, directly contrary to what is asserted concerning it, appears to operate more than it really does, in a population increasing in longevity, or from other causes, I shall, lastly, appeal from mere argument to facts. In the last census of the British Empire, the ages of the inhabitants, in its several grand divisions, are discriminated in three of these the comparative longevity is clearly ascertained, in two of them by statistical documents, in the other by universal assent. In Wales, the term of life is found to be longer than in England, by upwards of one fifth, while, in Ireland, it is certainly the shortest: the increase has not so varied. as to affect the demonstration contemplated. Is, then, the distribution of the population into its several divisions such as to sanction Mr. Malthus's notions on

the subject, or those which it has been attempted to substantiate throughout this chapter? It is thus: Calculated on a radix of 20,000 in each, there would be, between the age of 20 and 30, in Ireland, 3519; in England, 3158; and in Wales, 2996. Were, therefore, (the preventive check prevailing equally in each, or not at all,) all to marry at the period specified, it is plain that the relative proportion of marriages would be the least, and not the greatest, according as health and longevity prevailed; and the decennial number married, reduced, in each instance, to the annual proportion of marriages, would give for Wales 1 in 133; for England, 1 in 126%; and for Ireland, 1 in 113. Results of a precisely similar character may be obtained wherever the facts necessary to the calculation exist; to give the reason for this would be to repeat the preceding argument, which, it is hoped, is unnecessary.

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CHAPTER X.

OF THE PROPORTION OF SECOND AND THIRD MARRIAGES AND OF ILLEGITIMATE CHILDREN IN DIFFERENT COUN

TRIES, AND OF THEIR EFFECTS ON POPULATION.

(1) THE proportion of second and third marriages compared with the whole number celebrated, which appears to vary considerably in different countries, seems to have been very imperfectly ascertained, while their effect on population has been totally misapprehended. The necessity of these subsequent connexions, especially as it regards the male sex, has been clearly contemplated by the great Author of Nature; and hence he has (if I may thus speak) made calculations in regard to them, which will be the subject of consideration in introducing the true theory of population, and which will be found to rest on a series of computations of the most precise and essential character. In the mean time it may be observed, that these connexions, the prior ones being dissolved by death, sanctioned as they are by all laws human or divine, are essential to the institution of marriage, and, to a certain extent, are indispensably necessary to its ends, especially that of the preservation of the species. On this latter account their consideration becomes an important branch of the subject of population, and one, moreover, which, like so many others connected with it, seems, as just observed, to have been totally misunderstood by our late writers. In another point of view also, it is necessary to be attended to in this work; for the accuracy of the calculations in a foregoing chapter, relative to the preventive check, depend in some measure on