1849.]

Prospects of the English Ministry.

53

I look forward with some anxiety to our parliamentary proceedings. A grave attack will be made on the Government as to both their Irish and their foreign policy. And I do not see how they can defend either. Their Irish poor-law extension, passed in 1846, was brought in against the better judgment of the wisest part of the Cabinet, in obedience to ignorant popular clamour-and has done, what was not easy, aggravated enormously both the moral and physical evils of that country. Their foreign policy appears to me to have been good, as far as France is concerned-but in Italy detestable. Their willingness to acknowledge the Duke of Genoa as King of Sicily was the most absurd and most wicked breach of the law of nations that has occurred in my time.

How Lord Palmerston will defend it I cannot conceive, and, if he falls, the Government can scarcely stand. I hear that he maintains that Metternich is still governing Austria from Brighton. If so, this is the most successful part of his long administration.

We regret the failure of Cavaignac very much-not the less, as it deprives us of M. de Beaumont, who was, as might have been expected, most popular here. Can you tell me anything of Admiral Cécile, his successor nobody here seems to have heard his name?

Pray tell me your own news; and whether we may hope to see you and Madame de Tocqueville in the sumSince I saw you we have added to our establishment a daughter-in-law, a very charming person. Still we have a couple of bedrooms vacant for our friends;

mer.

but if the daughter-in-law is followed by grandchildren, they will be turned into nurseries. So I hope that you will come to us while there is room. I hope myself to be in Paris in May. In August we shall probably be at Carlsbad, and in September and October in Italy, if the Liberals will let us.

Best regards to you and Madame de Tocqueville, from all our circle.

Ever yours,

N. W. SENIOR.

March 8, 1849.

My dear Mr. Senior,-You wrote to me the kindest and most interesting letter, and I reproach myself for not having answered it.

I am all the more guilty as my political duties are trifling, and I have not wanted time for correspondence. Perhaps this may be the cause of my laziness. The exhaustion which has succeeded to the feverish excitement of last year, renders me incapable of any effort, even the very agreeable one of writing to my friends.

This universal listlessness is the characteristic of the period.

On the one hand we have our present Assembly, decrepid, feeble, in whose discussions we do not care to take a part; and on the other the prospect of a new Chamber, the spirit of which is still enveloped in mystery, while its approach holds the whole political machine in suspense.

1849.] Probable Character of the New Assembly. 55

When I say that the spirit of the new Assembly is still a secret, I am not perfectly accurate.

The immense majority of the legislative body which will assemble next May will certainly be animated by a strong spirit of opposition and even of reaction to all the mad follies, all the false systems, and all the men who rose up in the early days of the revolution of February 1848.

But how far will it go in this direction?

Will it be sufficiently obedient to the violent instincts of the agricultural masses, whence it will have sprung, to go so far as to overthrow the Republic?

If it should go so far, what will it set up in the place of the Republic?

This is what is completely hidden behind the thick curtain of the Future. If I dared to raise it for a moment, I should say that the most probable course still appears to me to be the maintenance, at least provisionally, of the Republic.

The new Chamber will be composed of three or four parties, of which each would prefer the maintenance of the Republic to the triumph of its old enemies.

I think that these parties, having no hope of the success of their favourite project, will be forced to be satisfied with the government which is next best after the one which they would prefer.

This, at least, is what I catch a glimpse of in the midst of the darkness which surrounds us.

Our Constitution is very bad, but it may get better; and if material prosperity, which is beginning to revive,

· could be completely restored, the masses would before long become attached to the Republic, which is, one must own, well suited to our social condition, as well as to the passions and ideas to which that social condition has given rise.

So much for the future. As to the present, France exhibits at this moment the most extraordinary and to most people the most startling spectacle that could possibly be conceived.

Do you know what is the actual consequence of this ultra-democratic revolution, which has extended the suffrage beyond even the limits known in America? You would certainly find it difficult to guess.

The actual consequence of this revolution has been to give to the rich and even to the old nobility a political influence which they had lost for sixty years.

The men belonging to these classes are those whom the people everywhere select for election to offices of State.

There is another phenomenon: this revolution, which appeared destined to continue and perhaps to surpass the work of 1793, has restored not only to religion but to the clergy an influence a thousand times greater than the Restoration, which actually ruined itself for their sake, was able to do.

What say you to all this? Is it not a curious scene in the great drama of human affairs, and one well worth studying?

I think that I could easily disentangle and explain to you the causes, mostly accidental, which have quite

1849.] Effects of the Revolution of 1848.

57

naturally brought about this strange reaction, and why I think that it would be wrong to expect the results to be very durable, though they will be of great importance. But such a subject cannot be treated in a letter. It requires a long conversation.

Come and see us. The events passing in France deserve the attention of a clear and strong mind, such as yours.

Mr. Bancroft brought us the two pamphlets which you confided to him. Thank you warmly for them; they appear to be both interesting and instructive. How much I wish that I could go and thank you in person, and accept your kind and pressing invitation. It would be unfortunately impossible for us just now. But if I should not be elected, I will certainly take advantage of your friendly offer after the general elections. This chance, which universal suffrage renders always possible, does not, however, seem to me to be probable. I would rather therefore meet you here.

Remember me very particularly to Mrs. and Miss Senior, and believe me to be yours sincerely and affectionately,

A. DE TOCQUEVILLE,

Kensington, April 22, 1849.

My dear M. de Tocqueville,-A thousand thanks for your letter of March 8, which has given me more information and better views as to France than I have had since I left it.

I am thinking of being in Paris from about the 9th to