but 168 against a Liberal majority of 485. At the ten General Elections which have taken place since then, the Tory party, like the Liberal party, have had their vicissitudes. But on none of these occasions have they showed in such diminished numbers as they do to-day. What is especially remarkable is the Tory discomfiture in the county constituencies of England. The Liberals reached low water in the counties in 1841, and the tide went very nearly as far out in 1874. Their highest successes were in 1832 and in 1835. But since this last date they have never approached the position which they occupy in this Parliament. The following table shows how the English county seats have gone since 1832. STATE OF PARTIES IN THE ENGLISH COUNTIES SINCE 1832. The This change of feeling in the agricultural districts is of great significance. For the last half-century the Tory party have maintained such power as they have enjoyed owing to the devotion of the farmers. They could always trust the agricultural vote. farmers never forgave the Liberals for abolishing protection. They voted solid for the 'farmer's friends,' who always promised them everything they wanted, and never gave them anything but shams. At length they have awakened to their true interests. The Tory strength in the counties now rests for the most part upon the fluctuating suffrages of the villa populations outside the large towns. The Liberal strength rests on the more solid ground of the genuine agricultural franchise, and what makes the Liberal success in the counties all the more remarkable is this-that the farmers have supported the Liberal candidates under the knowledge that one of the earliest works of the Liberal administration must be the enfranchisement of the farm labourer. The farmers have given their votes with the full knowledge that this electoral reform must take place within the next five years. The county elections which the Liberals have won took place for the most part after the voice of the borough constituencies had declared that a Liberal administration, pledged to an assimilation of the county and borough suffrage, would displace the existing Tory administration. It may therefore be assumed that the farmers are not so hostile to the new measure of electoral reform as their Tory friends have constantly alleged. If we enquire as to the localities in which the change of feeling returned supporters of Lord Hartington. The cause of this is not uninstructive, and it is of hopeful augury to the Liberal party. The borough overflow consists of stockbrokers, city men in a small way of business, clerks in counting houses, retired tradesmen, rentiers, and others of restricted means and no individual influence. These men, season-ticket holders for the most part on the suburban railways, have little time and less inclination to give to politics. Toryism they consider to be genteel, and such opinions as they hold are formed for them by the newspapers which they read in their railway journeys up to town in the morning and back from town to their villas in the evening. The leading London evening paper, shortly before the election, maintained the thesis that what the Stock Exchange think to-day England will think to-morrow.' And the villa residents outside London and the great towns believed their organ, and they have been disappointed. The votes of these people, which at best are shifty things, are just as likely to be cast on the Liberal side at the next election. There is nothing stable in them. They go with the fashion of the time. But let us more particularly call the muster-roll, and see what we have gained and lost. The parties in the House of Commons stood as follows on March 24, and April 29, respectively :— The position of the two great parties in the State is thus reversed. The Tory party has not met with such a signal defeat since 1832. After the General Election of that year, the Tories numbered 1 STATE OF PARTIES AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTIONS SINCE 1832. 1880 348 Liberals but 168 against a Liberal majority of 485. At the ten General Elections which have taken place since then, the Tory party, like the Liberal party, have had their vicissitudes. But on none of these occasions have they showed in such diminished numbers as they do to-day. What is especially remarkable is the Tory discomfiture in the county constituencies of England. The Liberals reached low water in the counties in 1841, and the tide went very nearly as far out in 1874. Their highest successes were in 1832 and in 1835. But since this last date they have never approached the position which they occupy in this Parliament. The following table shows how the English county seats have gone since 1832. STATE OF PARTIES IN THE ENGLISH COUNTIES SINCE 1832. This change of feeling in the agricultural districts is of great significance. For the last half-century the Tory party have maintained such power as they have enjoyed owing to the devotion of the farmers. They could always trust the agricultural vote. The farmers never forgave the Liberals for abolishing protection. They voted solid for the farmer's friends,' who always promised them everything they wanted, and never gave them anything but shams. At length they have awakened to their true interests. The Tory strength in the counties now rests for the most part upon the fluctuating suffrages of the villa populations outside the large towns. The Liberal strength rests on the more solid ground of the genuine agricultural franchise, and what makes the Liberal success in the counties all the more remarkable is this-that the farmers have supported the Liberal candidates under the knowledge that one of the earliest works of the Liberal administration must be the enfranchisement of the farm labourer. The farmers have given their votes with the full knowledge that this electoral reform must take place within the next five years. The county elections which the Liberals have won took place for the most part after the voice of the borough constituencies had declared that a Liberal administration, pledged to an assimilation of the county and borough suffrage, would displace the existing Tory administration. It may therefore be assumed that the farmers are not so hostile to the new measure of electoral reform as their Tory friends have constantly alleged. If we enquire as to the localities in which the change of feeling mention. The Tory representatives across the Border have again, as in 1868, been reduced to the sacred number of seven. In Wales but two champions come up to do battle for the ghost of Jingoism. When the electors of the principality were at it, they might as well have put these two champions out of pain. Next after Scotland and Wales, the north-east of England has sent the largest number of Liberal representatives. Durham does not send a single Tory, and Yorkshire sends but seven out of a total representation of thirtyeight. Lancashire comes next in order, swelling the Liberal majority by no fewer than twenty votes. The Derbyshire divisions come next, and there the Liberal wave commences to subside. The centre and the south of England remain true to the colours they donned in 1874. From the Wash, on the east, to the Tamar, on the south-west, the Tory colour predominates. From North Norfolk to South Devon-from King's Lynn to Helston-the bulk of the Tory majority are returned. The metropolitan counties are all for glory,' and the dockyard towns-Greenwich, Chatham, Portsmouth, Devonport, with the boroughs bordering thereon and under their influence, namely, Rochester and Plymouth-are for 'gunpowder-or, to speak more accurately, they were for gunpowder' during the two first days of the election, and before it was known that there would be a change of Government. Pembroke, where the election was four days later than in the other dockyard towns, was wise in its generation. It returned a Liberal by a small majority. But the devotion of the south of England to the party of retrogression has never been more steadfast than it has been during the late election. If you draw a line straight across England from the mouth of the Thames to the Bristol Channel, leaving Windsor on the south and Great Marlow on the north, you will find that in the district to the south of that line, that is, from the south bank of the Thames to the English Channel, there are forty borough constituencies which return Tories; and in the district to the north of that line, that is, from the north bank of the Thames to the Pentland Firth, there are fortyone boroughs returning Tories. This includes the Metropolitan boroughs. In other words, all Scotland, all the north of England, all Wales, and all the centre of England, are neutralised, so far as the borough constituencies go, by the little district which comprises some ten English counties. 6 Let us now see if any clue is given from a review of these localities as to the causes which produced the revolution. It is not without interest to recall a fact which was noticed at the time, and is now an open secret. Two years ago, when it appeared almost certain that the Prime Minister and his Cabinet, deprived of the sobering influences of Lord Carnarvon and Lord Derby, were hurrying the country into an European war, circulars were sent out by responsible men in the confidence of the leaders of the Opposition to trusted correspondents in all the constituencies of England, Scot the feeling in the constituencies on the question of peace or war. Answers were returned from nearly all the constituencies. These answers we have been privileged to see, and it is remarkable that the opinion of the country, so far as it could be ascertained by these means, coincides accurately with the verdict of the constituencies as now pronounced. Scotland and Wales were unanimously in favour of peace. From Lancashire, Yorkshire, Durham, and Northumberland the replies were against a warlike policy. In Norfolk, Northampton, and Sussex, it appeared that the constituencies took little heed of political events, and did not care very much whether we were to be embroiled in war or not, and in Devonshire, Hampshire, Lincolnshire, and Oxfordshire there was an inclination towards war. Among the boroughs, Portsmouth was pre-eminently warlike, and it was reported from more than one of the other dockyard towns that, while the townsfolk were favourable to peace, the men in the yards could not be trusted, as there was a natural impression that war brought work into the yards. Among the other boroughs, Bath, Lewes, Retford, Stamford, and Warwick, were, after the city of London, most eager to start upon the war-path. Bath and Stamford have indeed returned Liberals, and Warwick has put its old Liberal representative at the top of the poll. But, with these few exceptions, it appears that the warlike districts then are the Tory districts now, whereas those parts of the country which declared for industrialism and against militarism then, have sent up their representatives to swell the Liberal majority now. From this reasoning it is legitimate to draw the inference that the issue which has just been decided is that which we formulated in this Magazine two months ago the issue, namely, as to whether the country desired to enter upon a new cycle of militarism or revert to that career of industrialism which, with very few breaks, it had followed consistently and evenly for upwards of half a century, until the Government of Lord Beaconsfield came into power. Is it, we asked, to be Toryism and militarism, or Liberalism and industrialism, for the next five years? We had no doubt as to the answer which the country would give to the question, if it were clearly put before it. And it is a matter of no small satisfaction to those connected with this Magazine that, for months past, when the whole tide of popular feeling in the metropolis was running strongly in the direction into which Lord Beaconsfield strove to guide it, Fraser' has consistently and firmly done its utmost to stem the tide, and even to divert it into the channels of Liberalism. While every journal and every periodical established in London, with one or two noteworthy exceptions, floated with the stream, faithful among the faithless,' Fraser' held its own against it. And now we have our reward. For we have the knowledge that we expressed the views and sentiments of the people of this great country more accurately and more acutely than many, who, with louder pretensions to knowledge, 6 |