Зображення сторінки
PDF
ePub

The War and the Coal Famine.-There would seem to be little doubt that, in however small a degree, the war has contributed to the coal famine on this occasion. This has been done in two if not three ways. First, the movement of ships in connection with the transport of the war has obviously caused an increased demand for coal. This demand of course is for steam coal, but the nature of the business is such that a demand for coal of any kind tends to affect all the other kinds. In addition, a certain strain has been put upon the iron and steel manufactures and upon other industries as well, by the sudden demand for war material, and this increase of manufacturing has of course led to an additional demand for coal. The third way, however, in which the demand for coal has been affected is perhaps more novel and interesting, although the circumstance seems too small a one in comparison with the other great causes to have much effect on the coal market. The war, then, has directly stopped the production in the South African coalfield, as the coal mines at Dundee and elsewhere in Natal and at Indwe in Cape Colony have been in the seat of war; and this at the very time that the war has helped to create an increased demand for coal in the way described. And although the South African field is not an important one as yet, still in these matters a very small diminution of supply at the very time when demands are increasing naturally seems to have a great effect. An examination of the statistics of the coal trade for a series of years past shows that the pressure upon the English coalfield has been increasingly relieved by the development of coal mines all over the world, and not least in such places as New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa itself. But all at once the production in both Natal and Cape Colony has been stopped, and instead of steamers being coaled at Durban, Port Elizabeth, and Capetown, largely with the product of the locality, coal from England has had to be imported, and so the pressure upon England increased.

The Finance of the War.-A good deal of interest has been felt in the City respecting the methods by which the Government defrays and will defray the expense occasioned by the war, as far as the expense which has to be met by loans is concerned. Outside the City more interest is perhaps felt in the question of what the new taxes are to be, but in the City, among bankers and members of the Stock Exchange, the question rather is whether the money which the Government has to borrow will be obtained by treasury bills, or by some special form of short loan, or by the issue of annuities, or by an issue of Consols. All these modes of borrowing have their advocates. The issuing of treasury bills, or some other form of short loans, is contended for on the ground that as the Government, when the present emergency is over, will again be paying off debt, it will be more

convenient that it should do so by extinguishing short obligations falling due than by meddling with the funded debt. The advocates for issuing annuities, to run say for 40 or 50 years, urge the convenience that such annuities would be to Insurance Companies who like to have money coming in both as principal and interest. The advocates of an additional issue of Consols, on the other hand, argue that such an issue is by far the simplest and most intelligible, and that there is no special reason at the present time for adding to the short obligations of the Government, or for trying such a fancy mode of raising money as that of terminable annuities. Not much turns in all probability upon the plan of borrowing which the Government may adopt. We may assume that, as far as the price which the Government has to pay for its money is concerned, it will have to pay the same in whatever form it borrows, and we may also assume that as far as the money market is concerned, those interested will adapt their transactions to any form which the Government, like other borrowers, may adopt. The speculation, however, is a curious one, and offers an interesting conundrum for the study of the economic. student.

War taxes.-The general public are more interested in what the war taxation will be, and it is to be feared that a very serious call upon the tax-payer is in prospect. The war estimate for the current financial year is £23,000,000 and as money is flowing out of the Treasury like water, and the occupation of South Africa, even if we are quickly successful, must probably continue for many months, we shall not be quit of the war without this sum of £23,000,000 being doubled, if not trebled, before the end of the next financial year.1 Assuming that a large part of the means for this expenditure is obtained by borrowing, still a considerable sum must be met by taxation, at the very least £20,000,000 and perhaps a good deal more. In addition there is undoubtedly a serious prospect that this war, like most other wars for many years past, will be followed by a considerable permanent increase of outlay for war purposes. Very large estimates on this head have been put forward, as much as £30,000,000 annually being spoken of; and it seems quite certain that if the English regular army is to be largely increased in numbers and especially increased in the shape of Cavalry and Artillery, and if at the same time the Militia and Volunteers are to be increased and in various ways rendered more efficient, and if moreover the Fleet is at the same time to be increased and strengthened, then the prospect of very large additional outlay in future is one that is clearly before us. The mere possibility of an increase of the pay of the regular army at the very time when its

1 [Since this was written the Army and Navy estimates for next year have been issued and show an increase of over £40,000,000 above the original estimates for the current year.]

numbers are being increased indicates how formidable are the contingencies in the way of increased outlays permanently for war purposes. New taxes are accordingly inevitable, and it is evident that there must be a struggle between the advocates of indirect and direct taxation respectively. The city is rather in favour of indirect taxes, but politically there may be great difficulty for any Government in the matter. The whole question of the finance of the war is, however, much too wide and complicated to be dealt with in these notes.

The Budget. Since the above was written and put in type, the budget has been introduced. As regards the war loan, the solution which the Chancellor of the Exchequer has found is in the issue of a short loan of £30,000,000, the terms and conditions of which are not, however, very clearly explained. That it is to run for about ten years only, and to be re-payable by instalments is the sole intimation of its nature. Probably the issue is to be something analogous to the 5-20 bonds issued by the American Government during the Civil war; that is, it is to be redeemable after the end of a certain number of years, and to be re-payable at the end of a further number of years. We must wait, however, for the actual issue, which cannot be long delayed, to know the exact terms. As regards the war taxes, the Chancellor of the Exchequer proposes to raise altogether about £14,000,000 of new taxes, to which an increase of the income tax by 4d. in the pound will make by far the largest contribution. The remainder is to be derived from small increases of the spirits, beer, tea, and tobacco duties. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has thus given his decision in favour of the advocates of direct taxes. The Government, however, does not seem to anticipate that the permanent increase of expenditure following on the war and the lessons of the war will be so great as above stated, and that is another matter of controversy which will require discussion of a more elaborate kind than is here possible.

March 6.

R. G.

RECENT PERIODICALS AND NEW BOOKS

The Economic Review.

January, 1900.

The Agriculture of a French Canton. YAN KERAVIC. The Place of Money in Economics. W. W. CARLILE. How Berlin provides for EDITH SELLERS.

its Destitute Children.

W. W. CARLILE.

Socialism in West Ham. F. H. BILLOWS.

The Socialists offer "free concerts, free clubs. . . everything free except freedom." "Class hatred rather than love of humanity is the dominating influence."

Indiscriminate Indoor Relief. THEODORE DODD.

Referring to the Local Government Board Return for 1892 (No. 266), to the "valuable little book" Plain Words on Outrelief, and to the experience of Oxford, Mr. Dodd maintains that "outrelief" unions where there are more outdoor than indoor paupers, compare favourably as to cost as well as in other respects with "inrelief" unions, where the opposite character, the "hard" system, prevails.

Expenditure. THE BISHOP OF DURHAM.

Under the head Legislation, &c., the amount of agreement and disagreement between the "experts" who answered the examination paper recently set by the Local Taxation Commission is indicated by Mr. Cannan.

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.
December, 1899.

The Food Supply of the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, and
Germany. R. F. CRAWFORD.

The food (including feeding-stuffs convertible into milk and meat) imported into the United Kingdom would, if produced within the kingdom, require, on the basis of the present average yields per acre, 23,000,000 acres-nearly half the acreage under crops and grass, viz., 47,800,000 acres. "Our dependence on external sources of supply is represented by a volume of food-stuffs which could not, under conditions known to our experience, be economically produced in this country." This general conclusion is supported by detailed statistics,

and enlarged by comparison with other nations. The percentage of the total population whose demand for cereals is met by home production is, for the United Kingdom 39; for Belgium, Germany, France respectively 49, 80, 91. Yet our agriculture is not inferior. To supply the amount of cereals consumed by 1,000 persons in the United Kingdom (rather less than the corresponding amount for the other countries) there are required 580 acres in the United Kingdom, in Belgium, Germany, and France respectively 585, 859, 967.

Working Class Progress since 1860. G. H. WOOD.

The percentage of unemployed was largest in 1880-89, and least in 1870-79. An index number for the consumption per head of several articles shows a growth of some 50 per cent. since 1860-less than what is shown by Mr. Bowley's method-whether we use equal weights, or weights based on the expenditure of an average family, according to Mr. Booth, or certain arbitrary systems of weights [not very discrepant from Mr. Booth's]. The period 1870-79 is selected for the base as being a "middle period," such that the price-variation of any one commodity, e.g., cocoa, is less likely to impress its individuality on the total result.

Life Tables. T. E. HAYWARD.

(Continued from the September No.)

Geometrical Illustrations of the Theory of Rent. J. D. EVERETT, F.R.S. The abscissa x representing outlay as usual, the ordinate y represents not, as usual, increments of return, but total return-a construction which is said to have several advantages.

The British and Continental Farmer. R. H. HOOKER.

A calculation of the area cultivated and of the amount produced by each individual engaged in agriculture, presents interesting comparisons. Of food for man, nearly the same quantity is raised per agriculturist in England, Belgium, and Germany; in the production of food for stock the Englishman has a decided advantage. The area which each agriculturist utilises is much larger in this country than on the Continent.

The Statistics of Wages in the United Kingdom during the last Hundred Years. (Part V.) Printers. A. L. BOWLEY and G. H. WOOD. Compositors' "'stab" wages rose continuously from 1777-85 to 1810-16. After a fall then they rise from 78 in 1820 to 100 in 1891-92, and 101 in 1899. Index-numbers for rates per 1,000 "ens" confirm the statement.

Contemporary Review.
December, 1899.

The Age Limit for Women. CLARA E. COLLet.

A lively protest against the "formalised rule unfit to undertake responsibility after thirty-five. No. 37.-VOL. X.

that women are

K

« НазадПродовжити »