and in that manner, if a person who carried a particular letter from Henry to the pope had not been detained by an unforeseen accident beyond the day appointed. Voltaire fomewhere fays, that a stone thrown a little harder, in a battle in which Mahomet was stunned with a blow from one, would have given a different turn to the hiftory of all the eaft; and that a pair of gloves of a particular fashion, which the duchefs of Marlborough refufed queen Ann, and a glafs of water which, by an affected mistake, the let fall in her prefence upon lady Masham's gown, changed the face of affairs in Europe. And it is certain, notwithstanding all the folid reafons which are given for the rife of the French, and the declension of the Spanish power after the discovery of America, that had Henry IV. Richlieu, and Lewis XIV. been Spaniards, and Philip II. and his fucceffors been French, the hiftory of those two nations, as Mr. Hume fays, would have been entirely reversed.

Voltaire, juftly ridiculing the manner in which fome politicians reafon after events, fays, that "if Germany in the time fucceed

ing Charles V. had fallen to decay; had "the Turks invaded one part of it; and had "the other called in foreign mafters, politi

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"cians would not have failed to declare, that Germany, already torn in pieces by intef"tine divifions, could not have fubfifted any longer; and would have demonftrated from "the peculiar form of its government, that "the great number of its princes, and a plurality of religions, had neceffarily prepared "the way for its ruin and inevitable flavery. "And, indeed," he adds, " as far as human forefight could reach, the caufes of the de"cline of the Roman empire were not fo

"obvious."

An opinion of the profound policy of particular perfons is often the occafion of great mistakes with refpect to the causes of important events. How many extravagant things are afcribed to the intelligence and schemes of Cromwell; and how abfurd is the opinion which was common in France, that Richlieu was the only perfon who caufed Gustavus the Great to turn his arms against Germany!

It is very poffible that the affairs of empires are in fact conducted with no deeper policy, or greater reach of thought, than mankind in general exert in the management of their own private affairs; only the things themselves are more important, and therefore make a greater figure in the eye of the world. Vol

taire well obferves, that it is not a fuperior fhare of penetration that makes statesmen. All men who have any tolerable degree of understanding can nearly difcern what is their intereft. A common citizen of Amfterdam or Bern, he says, knows as much on this head as Sejanus, Ximenes, Buckingham, Richlieu, or Mazarine. This is certain, that all the capital events in this world, which have contributed to bring about a better state of things in general, all the fituations in human affairs favourable to liberty, virtue, and happiness, were brought about in a manner independent of the policy, the designs, or even the wishes, of all human beings, and must be ascribed wholly to the good providence of God, wifely over-ruling the paffions and powers of men to his own benevolent purposes.

LECTURE XXXIV.

General Obfervations on political Measures. When perfonal Confiderations may be fuppofed to influence public Meafures, and when not. Difference between the true, and the declared Motives to Tranfactions, Wars, &c. All just reasoning on the Connexion of Caufe and Effect capable of being 1educed

reduced to Practice. Periods of Hiftory more particularly worthy of Attention. The Connexion of Sacred and Prophane Hiftory. The Succeffion of the four Monarchies. Hiftory of the Grecian Commonwealths, why interefting, and what to be learned from it.

NOTWITHSTANDING the propriety of affigning political reafons for political measures, there is no doubt but that where they depend upon one perfon, or a few, perfonal confiderations enter very much into them. Princes, though politicians, are still men. In abfolute monarchies, and particularly in Eastern countries, almost every great event is afcribed by the most judicious hiftorians to the effects of private paffions; and queen Elizabeth, though, no doubt, she had political reafons for the unnatural part she acted towards Mary queen of Scots, is not without reason thought to have been determined to it, in fome measure, by her envy of her beauty and accomplishments.

It is a good general rule, that whatever depends upon a few perfons may often be afcribed to unknown caufes, but that what depends upon a great number is best accounted for by determinate and known caufes. Individuals may escape the influence of general paffions, but multitudes are actuated by gross and fen

fible motives. Befides, multitudes are not afhamed of being governed by a regard to the interest of the whole body; whereas fuch motives may influence the conduct of particular perfons, as they will not avow, and which there are no means of discovering.

We find in Polybius, that in his time the declared reasons of the conduct of princes and ftates were different from the true motives of their conduct. But even this author could have no conception, from any thing he had feen, of the great refinement of modern politics in this respect. To see the spirit of benevolence, tenderness, equity, and honour, that appears in all our declarations of war, and the manifeftos which are published upon entering an enemy's country, a common reader would think that the princes of Europe were more than men; but then he would be furprised that when all princes entertained those excellent pacific fentiments, they should be obliged to have recourfe to fanguinary methods in order to terminate their differences. He would think that when all parties concerned were fo happily difpofed, they would bear every thing from one another rather than go to war.

This attention to the connexion of caufe

and